Will China's Prosperity Ever Open the Window to Liberty?

So is there a merit in assuming that democracy can generate economic development? Or that economic development can generate democracy? After reviewing some literature relating to a thesis that a strong correlation between economic development and democratization indeed exists, we should name at least five possible theoretical models that discuss what comes first in the priority column when comes to economic development or democracy. First, scholars such as Joseph Siegel, Michael Weinstein, and Morton Halperin argue that democracies consistently outperform non-democracies on most economic and social indicators and therefore establishing a democratic state should be a first step to further development of poor nations. Second, modernizationists, such as Seymour Lipset, argue that economic growth leads to democracy. Third, another scholar Bruce Bueno de Mequita finds that the positive result of economic development may not necessarily lead to democracy and China here leads the perfect example. Fourth, Samuel Huntington argues that economic development without strong institutions could lead to political decay. Fifth, Adam Przeworski argues that the impact of regime type is not significant on economic performance.

Another observation, after the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, there was not one reference study available on what could be the best possible transition for communist countries to become libral democracies. In the case of Poland, for example, its quest to prosperity was therefore unique. Immediately after Poland dissociated itself from communism, it had not only pursued free elections, but also moved its economy from centralized to free market orientation. This accelerated process posed a tremendous hardship on Polish people as their living standard dramatically declined in the early stages of the transition, primarily due to the installment of a national economic policy called “shock therapy.” Furthermore, a few sociology scholars currently have been emphasizing that the hardship and challenges facing some Eastern European countries could place them in a difficult position of choice between free markets or a reversion to communism. It is well observed that during the 20-year span time, deregulation and privatization could not in themselves ensure economic efficiency, political stability, or social welfare.

Well, what about China? Can its prosperity lead to democracy? Does China want democracy? Certainly Chinese people have shown some level of exasperation with their system on many occasions, and many of which have never been known for the obvious reasons. China is desperate to keep the lid closed on their democratization process. But, the Internet could be their silent can opener. Certainly, the government is aware of its potential and continuously closes social networking and free expressions sites. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube went offline earlier this year.

Nevertheless, China still has the world's largest population of Internet users; reportedly there are more than 300 million users now in China. Yet, China also has the world's most extensive system of Web monitoring and censorship. Despite those controls, however, the Internet's role as a platform for sharing unofficial news and opinions has expanded rapidly. For this reason, the Internet has become China’s enemy number one. They fight it with all they got. Therefore maybe not prosperity alone but specifically the Internet may cause the great reclusive walls to fall and the liberal windows to open.